Hope is not a communications strategy.

By Kerry Parkin, Founder of The Remarkables

Are we sleepwalking into another communications crisis?

It’s an uncomfortable question – but one leaders should be asking now. Not because history repeats itself exactly, but because patterns do.

Geopolitical tension in the Middle East – particularly involving Iran – is beginning to translate into tangible economic pressure. Oil markets are tightening. Jet fuel prices are rising. Shipping routes are under strain. Insurance costs are increasing.

These are not abstract signals. They are early-stage indicators of operational disruption.

We’re already seeing cost pressures feed through supply chains. Fertiliser prices are climbing again – a leading indicator for agricultural strain and food inflation. When input costs rise, production tightens. When production tightens, availability shifts.

And that’s when it becomes visible. Supermarkets begin to experience inconsistency. Not widespread shortages, but gaps – delayed replenishment, reduced choice, intermittent availability. The kind of disruption that erodes consumer confidence quickly and invites scrutiny just as fast.

We’ve seen how quickly that narrative escalates.

At the same time, aviation is under pressure. Jet fuel volatility has a direct impact on route economics. Even moderate increases can lead to reduced flight frequency, higher ticket prices and more selective travel policies.

For organisations, this has implications beyond cost. It affects how we meet, how we sell, how we build relationships. It puts pressure on events, on client engagement, on global connectivity. The return to physical interaction is more fragile than many assume.

Meanwhile, in Australia, there are already clear examples of businesses moving early.

Major retailers and supply chain operators are actively stress-testing distribution models, increasing buffer stock on critical lines, and reviewing supplier concentration risk. Some are quietly reactivating Covid-era operational frameworks – including contingency workforce planning and escalation protocols.

Crucially, communications leaders are being brought into these conversations earlier. Not to respond – but to shape. To scenario plan. To anticipate stakeholder reaction. To ensure the organisation can move with clarity, not confusion, if conditions deteriorate. That is the shift.

Because the risk here is not a slow deterioration. It is rapid compounding pressure. Fuel costs rise. Logistics tightens. Supply chains strain. Availability fluctuates. Supermarkets feel it. Customers react. Media amplifies. Trust erodes. And in that moment, communications becomes business-critical infrastructure. Not a downstream function. A leadership discipline.

So the real question is not whether disruption will occur. It is whether your organisation is operationally and communicatively prepared if it does.

I was in-house leading communications during Covid, and the biggest lesson I took from that period is how quickly the role shifts from advisory to critical infrastructure. In those early days, the organisations that coped best weren’t the ones with the most polished plans on paper – they were the ones who moved early, aligned leadership fast, and treated communications as a core part of decision-making, not an afterthought. We were balancing employee fear, customer uncertainty, operational disruption and intense media scrutiny all at once, often with incomplete information. What mattered most was clarity, cadence and credibility – saying what we knew, acknowledging what we didn’t, and staying visible. If there’s one takeaway I carry forward now, it’s this: don’t wait for certainty before you prepare.

By the time it feels real, you’re already behind.

What should leaders be doing now?

This is where the focus needs to shift – from observation to action.

1. Establish an active crisis command structure Move beyond static crisis plans. Ensure you have a clearly defined, operational command structure with named individuals, decision rights, and escalation pathways. Run a rapid activation test – can your core team convene within hours, with clarity on roles and authority?

2. Build forward-looking scenario models linked to comms strategy Develop structured scenarios at 4, 8, 12 and 16 weeks, grounded in realistic triggers – fuel price increases, supply chain disruption, labour constraints, consumer confidence shifts. For each scenario, map not only operational responses but stakeholder communications: employees, customers, regulators, media and partners.

3. Revalidate internal policies and employee support frameworks Review hybrid working policies, financial support mechanisms, and Employee Assistance Programmes. Ensure they are current, accessible and aligned to today’s workforce expectations. Internal clarity reduces external risk.

4. Conduct a resource and capability audit Assess both internal teams and external partners. Identify gaps in coverage, capability and surge capacity. Align agency support to potential crisis needs now – procurement delays during disruption can materially slow response times.

5. Design distinct operational workstreams Separate planning, live incident response, stakeholder communications and customer engagement into clearly owned streams. This prevents bottlenecks and enables simultaneous execution at pace.

6. Quantify business impact and define trigger points Work cross-functionally to model the commercial, operational and reputational impact of disruption scenarios. Define clear trigger points for action – what specific events activate which responses? Ambiguity slows organisations down.

7. Implement a resilience-based resourcing model Plan for sustained pressure, not short-term spikes. Establish A team and B team rotations to maintain business-as-usual while deploying specialist expertise. Protecting team wellbeing is critical to maintaining performance over time.

8. Secure budget and external support in advance Ensure access to contingency budget and pre-approved external support – agencies, advisors, specialist consultancies. Speed of mobilisation is often the defining factor in effective crisis management.

9. Align leadership and governance early Engage your C-suite, Board, and Risk and Audit Committee now. Frame the conversation around preparedness and resilience. Ensure alignment on risk appetite, decision-making thresholds and communication principles.

10. Rehearse, don’t just plan Run scenario simulations. Test your messaging. Pressure-test your decision-making processes. The organisations that perform best in crisis are those that have practised under pressure.

The organisations that navigated Covid most effectively were not the ones with the most  detailed plans. They were the ones who acted early, communicated clearly, and adapted quickly. What we are seeing now are early signals – not certainties. But they are credible enough to warrant attention.

That experience is exactly why we’re now running focused “war game” sprints with leadership teams – pressure-testing scenarios, decision-making, and communications under real-time conditions. These sessions are designed to simulate the speed and ambiguity of a live crisis, helping teams identify gaps, align roles, and build confidence before it matters. If you’re starting to think about preparedness – or want to sense-check how ready your organisation really is – get in touch. Better to test it now than learn it live.

I hope this does not escalate. But if it does, it will move quickly. And in that environment, preparedness is not optional. It is a leadership responsibility.

Because hope is not a strategy. Preparation is.